Is a war between Iran and Israel inevitable?

For years the unsettling violence and unpredictable nature of the Middle East has been concerning. Lately the tension between Israel and Iran has me concerned.

Though threatening words is nothing new – what is  different now is the nuclear particulars. I am concerned that Iran will obtain a nuclear weapon. I am also concerned that Israel will strike in an effort to prevent Iran from having the capability of either developing the nuclear weapon – or using one.

Writing this I know I will receive comments telling me that Iran is not even close to having the nuclear option. I will also receive comments/emails that are anti-Israel. What I am focusing on is not the politics and religious beliefs of the situation – but that I truely believe it is just a matter of time before the powder keg explodes.

It may be within the year, it may be a decade away. It is just a matter of time before the Middle East erupts into violence to a level never seen before. I just do not see Israel sitting back and allowing Iran to possess a nuclear weapon. From their viewpoint it is a matter of self preservation.

One might say – “So what? Let ’em blow themselves up!” . Well – a severe conflict in the Middle East would have drastic effects here in the United States. The immediate effect would be a drastic overnight increase in fuel prices. Think gas is expensive now? This rise in fuel prices would have an inflationary effect on anything and everything that is transported on the roads or in the skies. The effect on the economy would be devastating.

Like I said – it may be a year or a decade. Regardless – I do believe it is just a matter of time.

What do you think?

how to bug in

Rourke

 

 


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25 Comments

  1. Unfortunately I agree. Israel will strike Iran. The effects will be catastropic across the globe. Though I truly wish we could mind our own business as a country, recent history indicates that we can’t. We will join the fray as a willing participant. And life will forever change.

  2. I’m with you Rourke. With the IAEA not being allowed to inspect the nuclear sites in Iran, there is good reason to believe Iran is not being truthful about their purpose for their nuclear program. There is cause for concern on many fronts. Those in high places in the Iranian regime have already shown themselves to have radical mentalities and I am sure that an attack would result in many innocent people being killed on both sides. It appears that Iran has already sent large numbers of their military into Syria and I don’t think they are there just to help Bashar al-Assad murder his own people. The consequences from such an attack on world economies would be profound.

    From Israel’s military standpoint, their history of well-planned and precision execution of operations is phenomenal, but they face a real challenge in terms of getting planes to the nuclear sites and even then have the bunker-buster capability to do the kind of damage that would stop Iran’s production of weapons grad plutonium.

  3. i think its only a matter of time the mullahs are on a mission they dont care how many of there own people die a . a couple of days ago i googled the iranian military and the kind of gear they have its all outdated stuff if they open this war they will be run over like a snake on the road

  4. Rourke,

    I have been thinking about the same thing for the last week or so. Another effect of those 2 countries going at it might be the US having to play big brother and try to ‘resolve’ the issue if ANYTHING happens, thus dragging us further into the mess. Iran already hates us enough.
    I have begun basing my preps on what would happen if Iran attacked Israel or vise-versa.

    Jared

  5. Rourke, you are getting serious in your old age – kind of scary!

    Oddly enough, I sincerely believe our saving grace in this issue will be Russia’s once and future president, Vladimir Putin.

    The fact that Isreal has between 88 (a really low estimate generally dismissed by most Intell agencies) and 200 (probably too high, but not out of reason) deliverable nukes is well known to us, to Putin (and I assume the rest of Russia), and to most of the Arabs who think beyond the limits of their prayer mats.

    Israel also has 3 (4th to be delivered this year and 5th on the blocks) Type 800 Dolfin class subs. These subs have both 533 and 650 mm torpedo tubes capable of launching a wide variety of cruise missles. Janes Defense Weekly “strongly believes” these subs are armed with nuclear weapons. The US Navy recently released a redacted report which noted a “probable Israeli launched cruise missle in the Indian Ocean with a straight line travel distance in excess of 1,500 km”. These boats are extremely quiet (according to the squids I talked to we tend to occasionally find them as magnetic anomalies rather than through active or passive sonar).

    Iran may (or may not) have 1 or 2 nukes with the ability to make 1 or 2 more every 12 to 18 months. They will most assuredly have one or more within the next 2 to 5 years. Will they be deliverable (i.e., can they scale the physics package down to allow one of their Shahab-3/3b ICBMs to lift it any distance)? That is the $64M question. They could always load it onto a CONEX and send it via a slow boat, but that is not a very exacting way to fight a nuke war.

    Will there be a hot war between Israel and Iran? Probably, there is just too much tension and face saving to allow this issue to cool off and blow away. Will Iran toss its one and only nuke at Isreal or us? Putin probably doesn’t want his southern border glowing in the dark, so I see him stepping in to prevent that from occuring. He may incite the rest of the Iranian military to get frisky, but it would be very counterproductive for him to allow Iran to start a nuclear exchange.

    Admittedly, my background was in the operations side not intell. So, don’t bet the family farm on my analysis.

  6. It would be naive to believe Iran is not trying to build nuclear weapons. History tells us that Israels intelligence network is more effective in the Middle East then ours and they think Iran is less then one year from have nuclear bombs. The Iranian leaders are crazy but not stupid. Given their stated willingness to attack Israel even if it means widespread war because it conforms to their religious belief that such a war would result in worldwide Islamic dominance why would we doubt that Iran will use the nukes once they have them. Certainly Iran knows that once it is common knowledge that they have nukes Israel and other nations will be even more committed to neutralizing them. Consequently the window is small. Once they get nukes the best thing they can do with them is give them to a terrorist group that would use them against Israel. In the mean time they have been improving their conventional forces such that if Israel attacks they can destroy Israels infrastructure. This threat is real. While it is unlikely that Israel has the air power to actually totally destroy Iran’s nuclear program there is little doubt that Iran has the weaponry to destroy Israel. Something will and must happen soon to change this power formula. Israel must do something soon or face the likelyhood that Iran will destroy them. The question is what and when.

  7. I totally agree. It is only a matter of time b/c Isreal will be left with no other choice. The only question is when, and who else will get involved?

  8. I am right there with you brother! I am just waiting to turn on the computer and see that Israel has done a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. I does worry me a lot too. I know that fuel would go through the roof and so would everything else we buy. Syria does not help the matters any either. With all that is going on there it just heightens the tension in the region. I say within the year we see something big happen over there.

  9. Rourke, the whole area is an explosion waiting to happen. An analogy, two gangs in a big city, have picked on one another for years. There’s even been BIG FIGHTS where several gang members on both sides are casualties. Both sides say, “we’re gonna knock you off the block.” Both parties involved want it to happen.
    But noones willing to be the one who starts, right now.
    Meanwhile the residents get ready for that day. They build safe rooms. Some, get a bag ready to leave town
    at the first sign it’s gonna happen. The really smart folk have moved out years ago, to a place in the country.
    Well, it happened one day. No one knows who started it or what started it. But it happened, fires started on both sides of the city. A giant fire-storm that fed on itself consumed everything. Buildings made of stone, wood, aluminum. People. Animals. Trees. Grass. The roadways. Gone.
    The problem of who owned what was solved. The big difference in this analogy and the real one in the Middle East. After cleaning up the debris, the town can rebuild.
    The middle east. It’ll only be fit for roaches.

  10. War may be closer than you think.

    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2012/0223/The-Iran-war-party-Feb.-23

    I seems some of our representatives are trying to move the line closer to war. Stop any efforts at ‘containment’ and push for immediate, decisive, action. No more ‘what-if’ guessing games, just get after them (Iran) and sort out the facts later. We were misled going into Iraq, and this has the same feel to it.

    I think, based on past experience, that Obama, like Bush2, may think this will guarantee re-election.

    Based on that alone, I think we may see moves toward full conflict in the next few short months.

  11. As I understand it, the latest news is that the UN inspectors have left with no hope. From an historical point, Israel will not sit back and wait for the inevitable. They will strike Iran if nothing happens.

    My two predictions for 2012 will be that Greece will default and that Israel will attack Iran before our Spring turns to summer. These two conditions will help Obama in the coming elections. It is more difficult to remove a president when ever conflict is in full swing, even if he is an A hole!

    There is a storm brewing. I can feel it in my bones!

    God bless, and good choice on the SHTF gun photo!

  12. I believe that you are right, and I pray that we are both wrong. The only thing I am certain of is that Iran HATES Israel, (as do most people in that neighborhood).

    If Iran develops Nuclear capability there are very few things stopping the unthinkable, one is a real threat of US intervention, Iran knows what we can do… but how long will we be able to maintain this posture with our economy failing and our leaders at each other’s throats (not very inspiring to see presidential candidates going at each other in ways we don’t let our children behave on the playground).

    The other thing is that setting off a nuke that close to many of their brethren (Palistine) would inevitably cause the death of other muslims and the permanent destruction of their most Holy places. I don’t think Iran development of Nuclear weapons is certain destruction for Israel… But that is a big gamble, if I were running Israel, I probably would have already rendered a pre-emptive strike. Good thing nobody puts me in charge, huh?

    Great post–food for thought

    Al

  13. I wish I could disagree with you but I can’t. I’ve been in this discussion before as well and as you pointed out, it’s not so much the politics or religion, although obviously these are key factors, it’s about preservation and both sides think they are being threatened. I’m also concerned about the back door allies some of these factions have and what it could mean for the U.S. when even just these two countries go at it. We have to think not only about what the economic impact could be but how will we respond. Or should we? Syria’s a good example, if we even look like we’re getting involved, then what? There just doesn’t appear to be any good answers but to buckle up and get ready to weather the storm.

  14. It will probably happen sooner than later, prob this year sometime. Israel is clear in their intent to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and Iran is testing the waters on how far they can push their luck with everyone.

  15. Rourke,

    I tend to agree with RobertW. We’re very close to something happening. I’m thinking months rather than years. The chess pieces are already being moved around the globe in preparation for something big. I fear this will be something our generation has never experienced.

    Keep the faith brother!

    Zoomie

  16. When it comes to the IAEA, it has been shown that they tend to use individuals who are actually spies for their government’s agencies. In Iraq, members of the IAEA have been caught spying inside Iraq’s plants for information gathering. The refusal to not allow IAEA members is understandable. I do not support Iran’s goverment, but I do not want to see war based on no evidence. Israel has nuclear weapons. They do not allow inspectors inside Dimona and other plants. Also, there is evidence that Israel tried to sell nuclear weapons to the goverment of South Africa back in the 1970s.

  17. Gone With the Wind, since when does Israel have the best intelligence in the world. Their intelligence on Iraq and weapons of mass destruction turned out to be wrong. They bombed a building in Syria last year because they believed that the building was for nuclear weapons production. It turned out that the building was a textile factory upon inspection. Israel has lousy intelligence so please get your facts straight.

  18. Hey Rourke, you hit a nerve on this one.

    Some really good discussions above. Not that anyone appears to have real high hopes for a nice peaceful ending to this issue. Hopefully, we’re all wrong – I wonder if Vegas has any odds on this one?

    Living in Texas and having some strategic energy investments which escalate rapidly on higher fuel prices I am not terribly adverse to $4 and $5 per gallon gas (at least I don’t have to pay taxes on it – ag exemption), but I would really rather make those profits without the benefit of a shooting war. My youngest is still in the Army (2 tours in Iraq, 1 extended tour in Afghanistan, no dings and no medals for excessive testosterone – thank you Lord), so I have absolutely no interest in any new military adventures for the USA.

  19. Two different issues, let me take the easy one first: That textile factory in Syria was a nuclear facility they were building whith help from North Korea and others. The facts are out there for you to still be regurgitating the propaganda says volumes about your agenda. You may dislike Israel, you may have some other agenda, but to actually say Israel has lousy intelligence clearly shows your bias. Everyone agrees that the Israelis do a better job of intelligence in the Middle East then anyone.

    EVERYONE thought Saddam had WMDs. Every intelligence agency every politician, everyone. Just before the invasion Saddam had thousands of trucks ferrying “something” from his WMD sites to the Beqaa Valley in Syria. Additionally Russia was flying in their largest cargo planes and Spetsnaz forces to protect and remove a massive airlift of Russian made equipment for the production of biological weapons. The airlift was massive and went on for months, in fact there was a serious confrontation during the actual invasion when some of the Russian forces still on the ground were intercepted by American forces. Our commanders choose to let the Russians leave with their cargo rather then create an incident. The Russians removed Iraq’s biological WMDs to eliminate their fingerprints on Saddams WMD efforts. Additionally a large cache of yellowcake uranium was found and confiscated in one of Saddams huge underground WMD facilities. One of the military commanders who actually went through this facility was interviewed at the time and he was literally astonished at the size of the underground facility and the quality and extent of the equipment in this nuclear WMD plant. I suspect that officer was reprimanded for speaking out of school. In the early part of the war when information was not being suppressed this was a known fact. I cannot speak to why this was all hushed up, maybe there were legitimate national security reasons for it. But anyone who was paying attention to the news at the time heard and even saw these same things when the media was not yet completely controlled. In fact one news outlet who was not eager to support the WMD theory ignored the irony and reported how some poor Iraqi citizens ignorantly dumped 55 gal drums of yellow cake on the ground so they could use the containers to hold water. The intent was to show the human interest side of the invasion but in the process they became another verified source of Saddams nuclear WMD program. If you do not remember ANY of these stories then I dount I can convince you. If you do remember these stories and still cling (bitterly) to your “no WMDs” meme then I know I can’t convince you.

  20. I would challenge John on Israel’s intelligence on Iraq and their assessment of weapons of mass destruction. All one has to do is search Google for `Marines Yellow Cake Iraq’ and read the story of how the Marines carried out a secret mission to hide and then extract over 500 tons of the un-enriched Uranium. This was hidden from us by Hussein and kept secret by our armed forces until recently.

    You need to stop drinking the Kool Aid freely handed out by our liberal press about Bush2. You don’t and never will hear about a fraction of what happened in Iraq.

    I only mention this because it is unclassified.

    That’s all I can say, and that’s enough.

  21. Alas, I agree that things are very likely to flare fairly soon.

    I think the best we can hope for is that the Israelis stick with tradition, a number of key individuals meet untimely ends, and the Mossad issues official “It wasn’t US!!” proclamations, and the ensuing conflict is limited to conventional arms. I’m not betting on it.

  22. Rourke,
    I found these two news items this evening and thought I would share them with you and the readers, although I am sure many have already found these stories themselves.
    As for the Iran vs. Isreal article you delved into, yep, I have to agree with many of the people on here, this thing is going to get out of hand fast…… and I think we are in for one long hot, summer with no where to go due to price of petro being above the 6$/gal range. (That is just my opinion, no facts to back it up, just a gut feeling)
    Stories here
    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/02/24/iran-rapidly-expanding-nuclear-work-un-atomic-agency-says/
    and here
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/24/us-bulks-up-iran-defenses/
    Stay tuned, things are heating up fast…
    P.P.

  23. SADAAM WAS TRICKED BY THE WEST AND HE WOULD HAVE BEEN STUPID NOT TO ATTEMPED TO HAVE AN NUCLEAR BOMB HE HAD NO WEAPONS THAT COULD BOTHER US, HE SHOULD OF TRIED HARDER AND WORLD [THE WHOLE WORLD] POSITION IS IN NEED OF AN GOD TO SAVE US ,WHICH ONE WILL WE CHOSE

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