International news of concern

International tensions and concerning activity continues to grow:

Obviously I am focusing here on Iran. Why? Because I foresee Iran playing a larger roll in world instability in the coming future. I find it difficult to believe that Israel is just going to sit back and allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. Israel strikes Iran? What will happen after that?
Rourke

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16 Comments

  1. “Israel strikes Iran? What happens after that?”

    At this point in time, not much. A few more people bombs, blown up busses full of commuters and school kids, random rocket and mortar attacks, and a loud, yet, basically useless condemnation of Israel at the UN.

    Iran is desperately trying to develop one or two nuclear warheads – Israel has (depending on which Intel estimate one chooses) somewhere between 88 and over 200 nukes. Iran would have to deliver their device on a flat bed truck (the technology to create a device small enough for missle or artillery delivery is a huge step past getting a working device which will consistently go BOOM). Israel has multiple delivery systems including missles, aircraft, and their 3 (soon to be 5) Dolphin submarines.

    Many Arabs and Africans and Asians have chosen radical Islam as a way of protesting their petty existence when compared to the richness of European and American lifestyles (this is a generalization, obviously not every one of us is as rich as we would like to be). Thousands of them would gladly choose to become a martyr if it meant they could damage the West. However, rest assured that the leadership of Iran (despite their obvious lack of tact and good hygene) has no intention of placing themselves in a position which would allow Israel to justifiably launch a major nuke strike. If suitably provoked, Israel can and will erase their country from the map and worry about what the rest of the World has to say later. Decades from now when the Iranians have developed proven technology for nuclear explosives as well as reliable delivery systems will be the time to worry about this issue. Until then, they are the small yappy dog at your aunt’s house – noisy, irritating, and worth watching so you don’t get ankle bit, but otherwise not much of a concern.

    Now, all that being said, should Israel decide to nuke ’em till they glow and then shoot ’em in the dark, I will cheer them on with beer and pretzels (got to keep it Kosher).

  2. Diplomacy with the maniacally driven Iranian regime may make us appear reasonable to some but foolish to most. It’s hard to reason with a culture who’s rule of law is written on stone tablets, considers you the great satin and calls for your annihilation. Their teachings suggest we have no right to exist.
    Sanctions may cause great suffering among their masses but have had little effect on Iran’s rulers.

    On February 14, 2005, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer Kharrazi, secretary-general of Iranian Hezbollah, declared, “We are able to produce atomic bombs and we will do that,” adding, “The U.S. is not more than a barking dog.”

    On October 26, 2005, for example, Ahmadinejad said, “God willing, with the force of God behind it, we shall soon experience a world without the United States and Zionism.”

    On June 2, 2008, Ahmadinejad said, “Today, the time for the fall of the satanic power of the United States has come, and the countdown to the annihilation of the emperor of power and wealth has started.”

    “Mahmoud… buddy… you’ve seemed distant lately, lets talk” is not a constructive response to such dubious statements.

    Iran’s religious fanaticism is not a social construct, in their minds they are the chosen and are destined by their god to rule the earth, and are justified in any means to make that a reality.

  3. I will tell ya….always keep your eyes on Isreal. That is the key. (biblically speaking)
    Things are really interesting these days.

  4. We shouldn’t have helped Israel all the years. Israel should have rotten themselves long time ago. Their foreign relationship sucks.

    Anyway, the Bible has do nothing with today’s Israel people: please take a look at John 4:19-24. Or buy books from AmericaVision.com for the last days, “The Madness of Last Day” should be a good start to read about the last days.

  5. To Harry, although I agree in most respects with your analysis, I have concerns over the technology aspects of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It’s true that they now brag incessantly on their science, their manufacturing capabilities and their technology but I have doubts that much of it is really theirs at all.

    The inconvenient truth is Iran’s nuclear aspirations are led, fed and bed by China, Russia and maybe North Korea (mostly Russia I suspect) and that cuts development time considerably for fuel development (as we’ve seen), the nucleus splitter and the various possible delivery systems and support equipment.

    It would be wise I think to deal with them now rather then later. I personally have grown tired of the UN’s hand wringing and face palming. They have shown they haven’t the stomach for much else.

  6. @Glock30Eric,

    Your Biblical reference is a little confusing based on the rest of your post. In John 4:19, Jesus has crossed from Judah in Samaria where he meets a Samarian woman at the well. He asks her for a drink and introduces himself (for the first time) as the Messiah.
    The Jews and Samrians were bitter foes and no Jew would have ever considered drinking or eating after a Samarian as it would have been unclean and passed on their sins. The history of this is rather long, but suffice it to say that Jesus’ polite request (the grammer structure indicates this) was very out of the ordinary.
    So, what we see is Jesus going outside of the box to contact foreigners (antagonistic ones at that), revealing his true identity, and professing his desire to bring the Word of Salvation to all peoples and tribes.

    This is directly parallelled in the actions of the USA – we are your friends until you prove yourself an enemy, we attempt to bring good and charitable services to weaker peoples, we provide aid and protection to those who are weaker and threatened solely for their beliefs, and we actively promote basic democratic ideals which allow others to work, play, and pray without fear of persecution. It would be contrary to our basic understanding of our place in the community of nations to allow a weaker state to fall simply because they are not on the best of terms with their neighbors. I would offer the simple fact that Israel is substantially more tolerant of their residents’ religious practices than any of their neighbors.

    Pardon my direct response, but the Bible has everything to do with every people including today’s Israeli people. Jesus taught love and tolerance are every bit as virtuous as piety, you may want to review that lesson – it doesn’t seem to have sunk in yet.

  7. I am not an expert on International Affairs, by any means, but my own suspicion is that if the Iranian nuclear program ever becomes anything more than a verbal threat, there will be some ‘tragic unforeseen accidents’, the Mossad, Aman and Shin Bet will look at each other, and issue “It Wasn’t Us……” official memos.

    Just my take on it. YMMV.

  8. The Israel of Golda Meir might have the chutzpah to try to destroy Iran’s nuclear industry but today Israel is very fractured and their leaders fight amongst themselves. I don’t think they will even try it. And if they did try it I think it will percipitate all out war in the Middleast.

    But on the other hand if Iran does acquire nukes and chooses to use them against Israel it would be devastating. Israel is so small two nukes would kill more then 50% of their population and make them extremely vulnerable to ground attacks. For Israel this is a lose/lose situation with no reasonable solution.

  9. JP,
    I am certainly not trying to recommend the USA or Israel sit on their duffs and allow Iran to quietly achieve their nuclear ambitions.
    My intent was to convey the large disparity between the Iranis trying to come up with their first nuke and some sort of system to accurately deliver it (unless one has a really big nuke, accuracy still counts if one wants to cause as much damage to population centers as possible) and the Israelis having dozens of nukes with proven delivery systems. One or 2 bombs against 100 does not make for a winning confrontation and the Irani leadership understands this. They want to join the club and eventually be a powerful member, but in the near future they are not going to risk complete destruction of their country and people just to prove they can light off one nuke over Jerusalem.
    I can certainly perceive a not too distant future where the Iranis, NK’s, and the Pakis have joined into some anti-west group which wants to poke the big dogs. History has shown way too many times some little tin horn will eventually convince his people that the only way to achieve their place in the sun is to run amok (Hitler is only one recent and easily recognizable example). It will happen, it will probably involve Iran, and in the end most of them will be dead (along with a large number of other mostly innocent folks).

  10. Harry, no doubt you are most likely spot on, irregardless of the facts facing them, they continue to poke at Israel and us with an ever lengthening stick.

  11. GWTW.
    You make some good points: I think in the end Israel will act.. and not alone. They know they cannot try… they must succeed. You are very right in the size disadvantage. It’s worth noting that much of the Middleast are not fans of the rouge Iran and Saudi Arabia has stated emphatically that if Iran gets nukes, they will pursue them also…for their own security.. a chain reaction will ensue. As Harry said, the deed could be done, there would be loud objections, pointing and wagging fingers, scornful frowns and UN votes of condemnation but most likely little else.

  12. There is no evidence that Iran is making nuclear weapons. It is quite obvious that Israel and the U.S. are putting pressure on the IAEA to produce bogus evidence to make war. This is the same war mongering that led to the war in Iraq. If Israel wants to make war with Iran. Then, let them fight that country on its own. It is sickening seeing propaganda sites pushing for war.

  13. Dan, a bit of info:

    Iran operates a large uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, which it illegally sought to conceal until 2003, and it is building up a stockpile of enriched uranium that is of no current use in its civilian nuclear energy program.

    Iran has pursued virtually every possible technology for producing nuclear fuel and did so covertly and in violation of its treaty obligations to keep the IAEA informed. This includes laser separation, a costly and complex technology to enrich uranium that is ill suited to producing fissile fuel for a reactor. Iran has also conducted plutonium experiments and is building a reactor that appears intended for the large-scale production of plutonium.

    The Iranian nuclear program cannot be justified on strictly economic or energy grounds. Harnessing Iran’s enormous natural gas reserves to generate electricity would be far less expensive, given that Iran is currently flaring and burning off natural gas as a byproduct of oil production.

    Today, Iran continues to stonewall IAEA efforts to investigate its suspect nuclear program. It refuses to answer questions about the mounting evidence of its past nuclear weapons development efforts, contending that documents indicating that it has carried out weapons design and testing work are forgeries. It has illegally neglected its treaty obligations to provide advance notice of new nuclear facilities and allow IAEA inspectors to have regular access to facilities under construction. The IAEA has also discovered that Tehran engaged in clandestine nuclear activities that violated its nuclear safeguards agreement, such as plutonium separation experiments, uranium enrichment and conversion experiments, and importing uranium compounds.

    There are also worrisome signs that Iran has made advances in uranium metallurgy, heavy water production, and the high-precision explosives used to detonate a nuclear weapon. Iran already claims to produce four kinds of centrifuges used for enriching uranium.

    Iran’s strategy remains clear: to hide and lie about its nuclear program, feign cooperation with the IAEA to delay any sanctions, depend on its Russian and Chinese friends to block any effective sanctions in the Security Council, and eventually present the world with a nuclear fait accompli.

    Dan, to be blunt you can continue to believe that there is no evidence or that the evidence is fabricated with the purpose of promoting some grand scheme to intentionally fool the world in order to advance a war that will likely never be. Why it will likely never be? Because it won’t take a war to end this, only a well planned and very limited action.

    It is certainly true that you have the right to your beliefs, you do not have that same right to your facts.

  14. JP,
    Good post – clear and concise.

    Compare Iran’s nuke development with Brazil’s. Therein lies the simple difference between military and peaceful atomic research.

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